Should we bring back Election DAY?

The strange victory of Joe Kent

In 2005, Washington counties were given the option of conducting elections entirely by mail, resulting in more than two-thirds of the counties switching to this method of voting. In 2011, the Legislature mandated that all counties adopt vote-by-mail, giving the entire state a uniform voting system.

With the introduction of vote-by-mail, “Election Day” became a deadline—the last day to vote in an election. Ballot drop day, the day ballots are mailed, is 18 days prior to the election for most voters. This year, ballot drop day is Friday, October 21, which should result in most voters receiving their ballots early the following week, roughly two full weeks before election day, which falls on Nov. 8 this year.

Voters may cast their ballot anytime between the day they arrive and Election Day. Election officials and many candidates urge voters to vote early so that they don’t forget to vote, and so that the ballot doesn’t get lost. Vote-by-mail is supposed to improve voter participation in elections, because of the extended period of voting.

Elections officials like vote-by-mail, because it spreads out the work of processing ballots. Records have to be kept each day on how many ballots have been returned by precinct. In addition, the voter signature on the outside of each ballot has to be checked against a database. If a signature has changed significantly, this gives the elections officials time to ask the voter to come in and update his or her signature on file.

What’s a “matchback” list?

To reach voters most efficiently, candidates also want voters to vote sooner rather than later. Each day during the voting period, the county elections department can provide a list of the voters whose ballot was received that day. This is known as a matchback list.

Political parties track important information about each voter, such as which presidential primary he or she participated in during the last presidential election. Analysts also track whether a voter votes regularly or just every once in a while. Databases are compiled to help candidates target their emails, text campaigns, and direct mail pieces to the right voter at the right time.

So while your ballot is absolutely secret, analysts can make an educated guess about how often you vote and which political party you prefer. The campaigns compare the matchback list to their database of likely voters in the jurisdiction, and then will focus their get-out-the-vote efforts on their party’s voters who have not yet voted.

The strange victory of Joe Kent

Many Washington voters have a feeling of unease about our elections. No one has conclusive evidence of cheating or manipulation, but year after year, election results consistently favor one political party—even when those results defy expectations. During this year’s primary for Washington’s US Congressional District 3, Republican Joe Kent was running against incumbent Jamie Herrera-Beutler (R) and several other Republican candidates.

Defying the established “vote early” strategy, Joe Kent tried something different. He asked his supporters to hold their ballots until Election Day. He also asked his supporters to avoid the post office, and instead to deliver their ballots in person to a drop box or auditor’s office. Kent squeaked out a narrow victory, with just over 1000 votes more than the incumbent Herrea-Beutler.

What happened?

What if the matchback lists are being used to calculate how many opposing votes would be needed to sway results in favor of a party or incumbent? What if our dirty voter rolls are being used to manufacture just enough votes to narrowly win a “tight race”?

Scientist and engineer Draza Smith provided a Washington State Republican Party election investigation committee her charts and analysis of Edison Research-reported data from the Washington 2022 primary. Her analysis shows Washington state voting patterns are not normal representations of human behavior. Charts of the reported votes in several Washington races, including Joe Kent’s race, are remarkably proportional over the course of the election.

That’s just not the way a normal random distribution of votes would occur. Think about a coin-toss experiment where you count heads and tails. You might have a run of 10 heads before you flip the first tail, a 10 to 1 proportion. However, given enough turns, the random results should trend towards 1 to 1.

If this experiment was repeated on multiple days, it would be unlikely for the experiment to have a daily result of 2 to 1—over and over—unless the coin was somehow weighted to usually land on one side. However, that’s what we see in the vote total charts—a proportion that stays the same from day to day.

Let’s bring back “Election Day” this November 8th.

Smith’s analysis of our primary election results is very interesting, but inconclusive on its own. The fact that Joe Kent surged at the end of ballot processing after asking his voters to hold their ballots is also very interesting. It’s easy enough to run another experiment on the matchback theory.

Let’s hold our ballots until Election Day on Nov. 8th, and turn them in at a drop box or the auditor’s office. Vote Republican up and down the ticket, and let’s see what happens. It’s time to do something completely different, because the old strategies are not working. Your vote is important. Make it count on Election Day.

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Nancy Churchill is a writer and marketing consultant in rural eastern Washington State, and the state committeewoman for the Ferry County Republican Party. She may be reached at DangerousRhetoric@pm.me. The opinions expressed in Dangerous Rhetoric are her own.